If I had to sum up the Dufferin County real estate market right now in one sentence, it would be this: we’re in a pause, not a pullback.

November gave us some really important signals about where the market has been in 2025 and where it’s likely heading as we move into 2026. Let’s get into it.

The Numbers That Matter Right Now

In November, the median home price in Dufferin County landed at $750,000. That’s about a 2.3% dip compared to last November, but more importantly, it’s up 5.6% from October. That month-over-month jump suggests pricing is starting to stabilize as we head into the winter slowdown.

Homes are definitely taking longer to sell. Average days on market increased to 46 days, up from 38 days in October. Buyers are not rushing. They’re taking their time, reviewing options, and negotiating more carefully.

On the inventory side, we ended November with around 112 active listings, down from 138 in October. That month-over-month drop is seasonal and expected, but zooming out, inventory levels across 2025 have been higher than in 2024, which has given buyers more breathing room than we’ve seen in years.

Sales activity is where we really see the slowdown. November sales were down 46.2% year over year, a clear sign that buyer demand has cooled compared to last year, even though prices overall have remained relatively resilient.

What Buyers and Sellers Are Actually Doing

Buyer demand right now is moderate and extremely price-sensitive. We’re no longer in a market where buyers are willing to overpay just to “win.” Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling, but anything that feels overpriced or needs work is sitting longer and facing negotiations.

This is no longer a strong seller’s market, but it’s also not a full buyer’s market across the board. It’s best described as balanced, with some pockets leaning buyer-friendly depending on property type, condition, and pricing.

On the mortgage front, we finally have some relief. The Bank of Canada has moved into an easing phase, with the policy rate dropping to 2.25% in December. As a result, 5-year fixed rates are now dipping into the 3.9% range. That’s slowly bringing rate-sensitive buyers back, although many are still watching and waiting for additional cuts.

Seller motivation is split. Some sellers are highly motivated to sell before year-end, which is leading to price adjustments and longer negotiations. Others are choosing to step back and wait for spring, which explains why active listings dropped month over month.

Looking at the trends:

• Month over month, average prices were up, but sales were down and days on market increased. This tells us fewer transactions are happening, and the ones that are selling may be higher-end homes.
• Year over year, prices are still up overall, but sales volume is way down. That’s the story of 2025 in a nutshell.

2025 in Review: The Year of Adjustment

2025 was the year the market reset itself.

After the post-pandemic surge, higher interest rates cooled activity quickly. Sales slowed, inventory climbed, and buyers regained negotiating power. Despite that, prices in Dufferin County proved surprisingly resilient, supported by long-term supply shortages and continued demand from people relocating north of the GTA.

One of the biggest shifts this year was balance. Buyers had time again. Conditional offers came back. Home inspections mattered. Negotiation became normal, not a privilege.

Looking Ahead to 2026: A Cautious Rebound

The outlook for 2026 is steady, not explosive.

Most forecasts point to a gradual rebound in the second half of the year, driven by further interest rate cuts. One factor to watch closely is the mortgage renewal wave. Homeowners who locked in ultra-low rates in 2020 and 2021 will be renewing at higher rates, which may lead to more motivated sellers in the first half of the year.

Price growth is expected to be modest, likely in the 1% to 3% range overall, with the most activity happening during the spring and fall markets.

What This Means for You

If you’re buying, the first half of 2026 could offer real opportunities. Motivated sellers, longer days on market, and improving rates mean you can be selective and negotiate. Getting a solid pre-approval in place now puts you in a strong position when the right property comes along.

If you’re selling, pricing strategy matters more than ever. Overpricing will almost always lead to longer market time and price reductions. Presentation and condition are critical, buyers are less forgiving than they were a few years ago. If timing allows, the spring market may bring more buyer activity as confidence improves.

The big takeaway right now is this: the market is calmer, more rational, and far more strategic. Whether you’re planning a move in the next few months or just keeping an eye on things, understanding what’s happening locally makes all the difference.

If you want to know what these trends look like on your street or in your specific neighborhood, reach out anytime. Based on what I know, the local details are where the real story always lives.

Happy Holidays and Happy New Year!

Teresa